Is the Telluride Real Estate Market Trending Up or Down?
There is a tendency to analyze short-term market data graphically with visual oversimplification using red to symbolize negative downward trends (bad) and green to indicate upward or positive trends. We’ll explain here with the data needed to make informed decisions, which we offer to all clients as leaders in the Telluride real estate market.
Analyze Total Telluride Real Estate Sales
Only when one examines longer-term data does a true picture come into a realistic focus. Three of the past five years were COVID-influenced, with average gross dollar sales of $1.2B. A 5-year look back demonstrates $960M / year on average. However, YTD the market has realized a 5% increase over that 5-year average. Therefore, the Telluride marketplace is simply “back to the new normal.”
Telluride Real Estate Sales Trending Downward? Pricing Upward
Even more notable, the resiliency of the market continues with a serious decline in inventory – as much as 50% compared to prior to the pandemic. With this lack of inventory, San Miguel County average sale prices increased 5%, while the Town of Telluride remained stable and the Mountain Village increased 48%. The latter segment of the market accounted for 60% of total sales volume YTD as compared to 40% during the same period last year. In addition, Mountain Village sale prices per square foot for single family homes inflated 37% and condominiums 16%. These numbers reinforce the conclusion that the Telluride market is strong.
Long Term Market Stability Assured
Simply put, supply and demand economics support that the Telluride real estate marketplace, while from time-to-time experiencing a decline in sales, has remained resilient as to value during economic downturns. The Telluride region is surrounded by federally-controlled property (USFS and BLM) limiting future growth to approximately 14,000 private acres. Virtually all of the private ground is subject to a master plan which allows for the development of fewer than 4,000 single-family equivalents on about one third (1/3) of the above-mentioned ground. This density is but a small fraction of allowable densities in other major resorts and it is this assurance of future controlled growth that positively drives the marketplace both with regard to volume and value.